Take the Guesswork Out of Compensation Decisions

In today’s public sector environment, the stakes around compensation have never been higher. Agencies are struggling to hire competitively, retain their most valuable talent, and negotiate effectively with limited resources. Yet despite these challenges, many are still relying on outdated surveys, gut instincts, or even union-provided figures to make compensation decisions that impact millions of dollars in labor spend. 

Let’s be clear: Guessing has no place in your compensation strategy. 

Whether you’re planning for recruitment, preparing for union negotiations, or reviewing internal equity, data-driven decision-making isn’t just a best practice—it’s a necessity. Here’s why guessing is still so common, what it’s costing agencies, and how modern compensation tools are changing the game. 

The Persistence of Guesswork in Public Compensation 

If public sector leaders agree that labor is their largest expense, why are so many compensation decisions still built on shaky foundations? It often comes down to three problematic sources:

1. Outdated Compensation Surveys

Traditional compensation surveys are often: 

• Collected annually or biannually, meaning data is stale before it’s even used 

• Aggregated across broad, incomparable job titles 

• Lacking in geographic or peer-specific context 

Worse yet, many agencies struggle to interpret the results in ways that translate to their local market. A title like “Senior Analyst” might look similar on paper but vary dramatically in scope and responsibility between jurisdictions. Apples-to-apples comparisons are rarely guaranteed.

2. Gut Feelings and Institutional Memory

Another common fallback: the internal assumption of what “feels right.” 

We hear things like, “This pay band has worked for years,” or, “We know what our neighboring city offers.” While experience and institutional memory matter, relying solely on them creates blind spots—especially in a market that has shifted dramatically since the pandemic.

3. Union-Provided Data

In some cases, the only figures on the table during labor negotiations are those presented by the union. This puts public agencies on the defensive from the start, trying to react to someone else’s version of the truth. 

Without access to verified, up-to-date market data, it’s difficult to counter unrealistic proposals, make strategic offers, or forecast long-term financial impact with confidence. 

What Guessing Actually Costs You 

It might feel harmless to keep doing things the old way, but the costs of guessing are steep—and measurable.

1. Overpaying or Under-Hiring

If your pay ranges are out of sync with the current market, you risk two major issues: 

• Overpaying for roles because you’re basing decisions on inflated or irrelevant benchmarks 

• Under-hiring because your offer isn’t competitive, causing top candidates to walk away 

Even small errors add up. For an agency with a $50M personnel budget, a 0.5% variance can mean $250,000+ in missed savings annually (PwC).

2. Missed Hires and Slower Time-to-Fill

The public sector is already facing a recruitment crisis. With only 1 in 5 Gen Z workers considering a government career (Partnership for Public Service), your window to make a competitive offer is shrinking. 

If your data is outdated or unclear, you may: 

• Lose candidates to faster-moving private sector employers 
• Spend months reopening a position that could have been filled quickly

3. Turnover from Misaligned Pay

The wrong pay strategy doesn’t just affect hiring—it impacts retention. 

• 42% of turnover is preventable and often tied to outdated pay practices (Gallup) 

• Agencies that modernize their compensation strategy see up to an 11% improvement in retention (McKinsey) 

Every time a high-performer leaves, it costs 1.5–2X their annual salary to replace them when factoring in lost productivity, institutional knowledge, and hiring costs (Gallup, SHRM).

4. Legal and Negotiation Risk

When you’re entering labor negotiations without reliable data, you’re at risk of: 

• Agreeing to unaffordable terms 

• Missing key contractual obligations 

• Creating long-term liabilities that strain future budgets 

Organizations like NASPE report that fewer than 30% of government HR leaders are using current comp data to prepare for negotiations, and less than 20% track union commitments with structured systems (MissionSquare). 

In short: Guessing makes you vulnerable. 

The Shift to Strategic, Data-Driven Compensation Planning 

Leading public agencies are breaking the cycle of guesswork by embracing real-time, verified data. Here’s what modern compensation strategy looks like:

1. Real-Time Benchmarking

Modern tools like TrueComp provide instant access to up-to-date compensation data across thousands of public sector jobs. Unlike static surveys, this data is: 

• Continuously updated 

• Peer-verified 

• Tailored for public sector roles 

You can compare salaries with clean job matching and geographic specificity—giving HR and Finance confidence in every offer.

2. Scenario Modeling

Want to know what a 3% COLA would cost over the next five years? Need to see the impact of a benefit change during union negotiations? 

Tools like TrueComp make it possible to model any scenario in real time—with no spreadsheets. This turns negotiations from a guessing game into a strategic process.

3. Unified Systems for HR, Finance, and Labor

Strategic compensation isn’t just about the numbers. It’s about alignment. 

When HR, Finance, and Labor teams are working off the same system, using the same data, you eliminate confusion and make collaborative planning possible. 

Real-World Impact 

Agencies that modernize their approach are seeing results: 

• 25–30% reduction in administrative workload 

• 2x faster time-to-hire for competitive roles 

• Better union relationships due to transparency 

Grand Traverse County, MI reported that integrating TrueComp data helped support its strategic goals around talent attraction and retention. The City of Columbus, OH shared that it allowed them to show unions exactly where they stand financially, improving negotiation clarity. 

Final Thoughts: Replace Guessing with Confidence 

Public sector teams have too much on the line to rely on outdated tools and assumptions. Guessing isn’t just inefficient—it’s risky, expensive, and increasingly unnecessary. 

Modern compensation strategies are built on real-time data, scenario planning, and cross-department alignment. When you replace guesswork with actionable insight, you empower your agency to: 

• Compete for top talent 

• Retain institutional knowledge 

• Prepare for negotiations with confidence 

• Protect taxpayer dollars with smarter decisions 

Your workforce is your largest investment. It’s time to treat it like one. 

Ready to stop guessing? Unlock our on-demand video library to see how we help public agencies modernize their compensation strategies.