Why Government Agencies Must Act Now on Workforce Planning

By Ryan James, Chief Revenue Officer, TrueComp 

Every day, approximately 10,000 Americans turn 65. It’s a striking number—and a sign of a seismic shift underway in the workforce. In the public sector, this demographic change has been coined the “Silver Tsunami,” and its impact is already rippling through the way agencies hire, plan, and operate. 

What once felt like a slow-moving trend is now happening in real time. City governments, counties, and school districts are watching long-serving employees retire faster than they can be replaced. And when those individuals step away, it’s not just roles that go unfilled—it’s institutional knowledge, historical context, and trusted community relationships that disappear with them. 

At the same time, bringing in new talent is proving harder than ever. Fewer young professionals are entering public service, and those who do are weighing more options with higher expectations. Private sector opportunities often feel more flexible or lucrative, leaving agencies struggling to compete in a fast-moving labor market. 

The Hidden Cost of Turnover 

While retirements dominate the headlines, retention is equally urgent. According to Gallup, 42% of employee turnover is preventable—but often goes unaddressed due to a lack of time, data, or strategy. And when people leave, the cost isn’t just about recruitment. Gallup estimates it can take 50% to 150% of an employee’s annual salary to replace them when you factor in lost productivity, onboarding, and institutional knowledge. 

For public agencies and school systems working within tight budgets, these costs quietly add up—and often come at the expense of the very services they’re trying to protect. 

Planning for What’s Next 

The complexity of the Silver Tsunami is compounded by fiscal pressure and rising service demands. Leaders know they need to prepare, but preparation without reliable information leads to uncertainty. That’s where real-time workforce analytics, compensation benchmarking, and modeling tools become critical. They give HR and finance teams a shared view of labor costs, competitive positioning, and long-term risk—so they can make decisions that are both responsive and strategic. 

What the Data Tells Us 

The opportunity here isn’t just about avoiding risk—it’s about unlocking value. According to PwC, agencies that adopt structured compensation and workforce planning strategies can reduce turnover costs by 5–10% and save up to 0.5% of their personnel budget annually. For many public organizations, that’s the difference between cutting programs and strengthening them. 

Whether you’re overseeing a school district, running a city department, or managing a county budget, workforce strategy is no longer just an HR task—it’s a leadership priority. Agencies that treat talent as a core asset, not a cost center, will be far better positioned to retain experience, preserve continuity, and meet the evolving needs of the communities they serve. 

Navigating Change with Confidence 

There’s no one-size-fits-all fix for what’s ahead. But there are clear, proactive steps leaders can take: invest in better data, bring HR and finance into closer alignment, and think beyond this year’s budget cycle. These aren’t just operational decisions—they’re strategic ones, grounded in the belief that strong public services start with a strong public workforce. 

The Silver Tsunami may be inevitable. But with the right insight, tools, and alignment, agencies—and school districts—can weather it with clarity, confidence, and care.