How CalPERS’ 11.6% Return Impacts Public Sector Planning

On August 14, 2025, TrueComp hosted a timely conversation on the 2024–25 CalPERS investment returns and what they mean for public agencies navigating a complex economic landscape. The webinar featured insights from industry experts:

• Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities and frequent contributor to Bloomberg TV and Fox Business

• Dan Matusiewicz, Public Finance Consultant

• Ira Summer, Retirement System Expert

Together, they explored the 11.6% investment return CalPERS achieved for the 2024–25 fiscal year, surpassing its long-term return assumption, and examined the broader economic forces that will influence future planning for public agencies.

Key Takeaways

1. A Strong Year for Returns, But Challenges Remain
CalPERS’ 11.6% return is good news, but panelists stressed that agencies cannot take these results in isolation. Market volatility, labor pressures, and inflation continue to shape the long-term outlook.

2. The Federal Reserve’s Path Forward
Peter Tchir highlighted how evolving Fed policy—particularly around interest rates and inflation management—will remain a key driver of agency borrowing costs and investment strategies.

3. Geopolitical and Labor Market Pressures
Global trade tensions and shifting workforce dynamics are expected to have ripple effects on the U.S. economy. Public agencies should prepare for potential cost escalations, especially in labor and benefits.

4. Practical Implications for Agencies
Speakers emphasized the importance of aligning compensation planning with market realities. Strong investment returns may offer temporary relief, but strategic workforce and budget planning are essential to maintain stability.

Why This Matters for Agencies

Public sector leaders are tasked with balancing competitive compensation, sustainable budgets, and long-term obligations like pensions. The CalPERS return provides a positive marker, but agencies should view it as part of a larger economic picture—one that requires proactive planning and data-driven decision-making.

Watch the Full Webinar

📺 Watch the recording
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